← The Earnings Edge

Ep 15: Who Earns the Next Dollar? Meta, Oracle, and Costco's Reality Check

September 25, 2026

Stories Covered

• The week in one line — Monday brought a semiconductor surge and Google's laptop launch. Midweek, Meta expanded its agent ambitions while rising Treasury yields challenged the spending boom. Thursday brought Costco's earnings and Oracle's power dispute; Friday sharpened the safety debate. The connecting thread isn't artificial intelligence versus the old economy — it's whether promises become useful, profitable service.
• Googlebook and Qualcomm: distribution expands, adoption unproven — Google opened Googlebook preorders, pairing Android continuity with Gemini. Qualcomm introduced new Snapdragon platforms built around on-device agents. Both strengthen the compendium's edge-computing thesis, but availability isn't adoption. Watch sell-through, battery performance, and repeat use — shipping an AI button is easier than making it useful.
• Meta Connect: from chatbots to a transaction layer — Meta's core business connects advertisers with attention; at Connect it pushed toward connecting customer intent with action. Muse is getting more shopping and payment partners, permissioned Mac control, and future access through glasses. Meta framed the goal as personal agents and devices that let you reach them anywhere — a distribution strategy, not just another chatbot.
• The business-model possibility, and the gap — Meta could participate before a purchase, during checkout, and throughout the customer relationship. The compendium already argued agents could become a transaction layer; Connect strengthens that case by adding actual access points. But a connector isn't a disclosed commission agreement — we still don't know how much economic value Meta captures when an agent completes a purchase.
• Friday's counterweight: safety and accountability — Benzinga relayed The Information's report that Meta strengthened a Muse safety warning after a vulnerability was found; the available headline doesn't establish the technical scope. Separately, Reuters reported the FTC chair suggesting developers should be responsible for agents' conduct. That's a policy signal, not a new rule — but permission controls and accountability are becoming part of the commercial product.
• Meta's real test — Benzinga's weekly review says Meta still posted double-digit weekly gains. Bulls see enormous distribution; bears see spending ahead of dependable monetization. My test is less glamorous: retained users, paid conversion, and cost per successfully completed task — count human intervention too. Cross-reference Qualcomm: more devices can distribute agents, but more expensive hardware doesn't fix an unreliable service.
• Oracle faces the physical version of that problem — Oracle sells database software and cloud computing, but future AI growth needs buildings with electricity. Reuters reported a force-majeure notice linked to Project Jupiter in New Mexico and possible power delays. Oracle says the project remains on its planned schedule; Blue Owl says financial commitments haven't changed. Keep both statements in the picture.
• Why the distinction matters — Reuters' source described an attempt to extend lower development-stage rent, not escape the lease. That sharpens the compendium's financing thesis: contracted demand isn't the same as energized capacity producing cash. This isn't proof of cancellation or a new guidance cut — it's evidence that who pays during a delay can matter as much as who signed the original order.
• Power, permits, and the borrowing-cost clock — The political dimension is local as well as national: water, air permits, pipelines, and community acceptance. Higher borrowing costs make every delayed month more consequential, which connects chip suppliers and power developers — all can have genuine demand and still face different revenue clocks. Watch construction and power milestones, financing terms, and actual commissioning, not another impressive backlog headline.
• Costco's reality check: the membership is the product — Thursday's results beat Wall Street expectations, with net sales around $94 billion. But the call's central message wasn't the beat. Management kept explaining how fuel, pharmacy, delivery, and lower prices make membership worth keeping — an operating story, not just financial engineering. CEO Ron Vachris put it plainly: "Our membership continues to be the most important item we sell."
• Delivery as extension, not replacement — Fuel savings bring people back; expanded delivery reaches younger shoppers. Management says those delivery purchases are mostly incremental. My read: Costco is extending the relationship without abandoning the warehouse. The test is whether convenience adds purchases rather than simply moving existing purchases into a costlier channel.
• Tariffs: temporary relief versus lasting loyalty — Costco received refunds and reinvested some in lower prices, with more reinvestment planned. An analyst challenged whether those cuts were accelerating sales; management defended the underlying demand. That's the right debate. The quarter included a one-time earnings benefit, so separate recurring performance from the refund boost.
• The semiconductor connection: memory inflation hits the aisle — Costco's finance chief identified memory costs in electronics as an inflation driver, alongside oil-related products. The compendium's memory-scarcity thesis now has a downstream example: what helps a chip supplier can squeeze a retailer or its customer. That doesn't prove every memory category stays tight — it shows why supplier pricing power and consumer affordability belong in the same conversation.
• AI search traffic: intent measured, revenue share undisclosed — Costco said AI-powered search traffic grew rapidly and delivered its highest conversion rate among traffic sources. That's evidence of purchase intent, not proof of a material revenue contribution; management didn't give that traffic's share of sales. Compare Meta: one company is building the agent, another is measuring shoppers arriving from AI. Both need completed transactions that customers value.
• Darden: don't overgeneralize the consumer — Darden, owner of Olive Garden and LongHorn, reported positive same-restaurant sales across its segments and kept its annual outlook unchanged. LongHorn was stronger than Olive Garden. So don't turn Costco's success into a blanket claim that every consumer business is thriving — execution and customer mix still matter.
• One-sentence version — The compendium's AI demand thesis strengthened through product distribution while its safety and financing warnings became more concrete, and Costco adds the important distinction that customer value is something a business can demonstrate now, not merely forecast.

Compendium Themes

• Agentic AI / Transaction Layer — Strengthened in distribution, unresolved in economics. Meta added real access points through Muse partners, permissioned Mac control, and glasses, but a connector is not a disclosed commission agreement.
• AI Infrastructure Demand — Proven but gated by power, permits, financing, and commissioning. Oracle's Project Jupiter dispute is the clearest example yet that contracted demand is not energized capacity producing cash.
• AI Memory Supercycle — Bifurcating, with a downstream receipt. Costco's CFO named memory costs in electronics as an inflation driver even as Micron's September 30 call approaches and CXMT's production claims remain a competitive risk.
• Energy / AI Power Bottleneck — Reinforced. Water, air permits, pipelines, community acceptance, and higher borrowing costs make every delayed month more expensive, and can shift who pays during a delay.
• Edge AI and Hardware Adoption — Distribution expanding via Googlebook and Qualcomm Snapdragon; adoption and repeat use still unproven.
• Consumer / Membership Economics — Demonstrated rather than forecast. Costco's fuel, pharmacy, delivery, and pricing support retention now, though tariff relief was explicitly non-recurring and Darden shows the consumer picture stays uneven.

Sources

• Benzinga — September 25 weekly market review
• Google — Googlebook preorders opened September 21
• Benzinga — Qualcomm AI-first Snapdragon launch, September 23
• Meta — Everything announced at Connect 2026, September 23
• Benzinga — Relay of The Information: Muse safety warning, September 25 (headline only)
• Reuters — FTC chair suggests developer liability for agents, September 25
• Reuters — Oracle force-majeure notice and power delays, September 24
• Costco Investor Relations — Q4 and fiscal year 2026 operating results, September 24
• Benzinga — Full transcript: Costco Q4 FY2026 earnings call, September 24
• Benzinga — Memory inflation in Costco's electronics business and the $152 million charge
• Darden Investor Relations — Q1 FY2027 results, September 24
• Micron Investor Relations — September 30 financial call
• Reuters — CXMT claimed mass-production milestone, September 20 (prior-week background)

What to Watch

• September 30: Micron's financial call — listen for management's distinction between high-bandwidth AI memory and conventional memory supply. Costco's electronics-cost pressure makes that conversation tangible: scarcity has customers on the other side.
• Meta: Safety disclosures and retained usage. The commercial test is completed tasks, paid conversion, and how much human intervention each success requires.
• Oracle: Power milestones, financing terms, and actual commissioning for Project Jupiter — not another backlog headline.
• October 4: Googlebook's planned U.S. retail arrival. Sell-through, returns, and repeat use are the scorecard.
• Costco: Separate continuing customer demand from temporary tariff benefits as the refund boost rolls off.
• Across all of them: Follow borrowing costs and energy availability. Execution, not announcement volume, will decide which stories hold up — that's a framework, not a stock prediction.