The Earnings Edge
Earnings call analysis & market intelligence
Ep 13: Who Can Afford Growth? Lennar, Amazon, and Apple's Big Test
September 18, 2026
The Fed raised rates, and Friday reporting put the ten-year Treasury back around five percent. Lennar is using incentives to protect affordability; Amazon is securing $2.4 billion of initial generator deliveries for its data centers; and Apple tests premium demand with iPhone 18 Pro in stores and the Duo coming October 23. The real story is not whether demand exists. It is whether it can be delivered affordably and converted into cash.
Show notes →Ep 12: Demand Is Real, Financing Is the Question
September 15, 2026
The ten-year broke 5% for the first time since 2007, WTI spiked past $106 on the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown, and the Fed prices in a hike. After Musk, Altman, and Amodei asked for slower AI, Monday's chips selloff rotated into cybersecurity instead of leaving tech. JPMorgan sees 110-plus EUV machines for 2028, SK Hynix ships HBM4 at volume — demand is real, but Fortress says the debt side is mispriced. AI demand is real; AI financing is the question.
Show notes →Ep 11: The Receipts Beat the Financing Math
September 11, 2026
Oracle booked $664 billion in remaining performance obligations — up over $200 billion in a year — and popped 4.5% after hours: the receipts beat the financing math. Apple launched its first foldable, the iPhone Duo at $1,999 on TSMC's 2nm A20 Pro. Azure crossed $100B a year. But 30-year yields hit 19-year highs, Brent broke $100, Big Tech is on track for a record $320B in bond issuance, and Fed hike odds hit 70%. Demand versus capital — the tug-of-war into year-end.
Show notes →Ep 10: Oil Hit a Hundred, and the Politicians Showed Up
September 8, 2026
Brent crude pushed through $100 on the Iran-Hormuz standoff, the ten-year yield cracked above 4.8%, and some traders are pricing a Fed HIKE. Microsoft broke out Azure — a $100B-a-year cloud business. Nvidia buys Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, buying the front door to 18 million AI developers. Oracle Thursday: options price a $47.8B swing on the print. Dan Ives says political backlash could cut 10-15% of U.S. data center projects — politics is the AI story's new villain.
Show notes →Ep 9: The Week the Jobs Report Brought Back the Hike
September 4, 2026
The jobs report printed 210,000 jobs versus 56,000 expected — almost four times consensus — and the market flipped from a rate hold to 60% odds on a hike. Bitcoin dropped below $80,000. Dell delivered the print of the year: $47B record revenue, $60.9B in AI server orders in one quarter, a $95B backlog, and a $25B guidance raise. Broadcom beat with AI revenue up 221% and Hock Tan laid out a doubling arc to $230B — but the stock fell on a supply-constrained guide. Salesforce embeds Claude across its product line. Tesla's Cybercab was a drizzle, not a storm. SpaceX's Grok Bot for Enterprise is the xAI merger's first monetized product.
Show notes →Ep 8: The Yield Storm Meets the Earnings Machine
September 1, 2026
Rates and oil hammered rich multiples all session — then Dell raised full-year guidance by $25 billion after the close. Dell booked $60.9B in new AI server orders in a single quarter with a $95B backlog, and traditional servers grew 122%, faster than AI. John Ternus takes over as Apple's CEO after Tim Cook's 15-year run. Nvidia invests $3.5B in MediaTek and pushes NVLink Fusion into Broadcom's custom-chip territory ahead of Wednesday's print. NIO misses while Li Auto surges 32%. Ten-year yields at 19-month highs, hike odds at 68%, Brent above $90.
Show notes →Ep 7: Nvidia's $96B Quarter, Claudeforce Kills the SaaSpocalypse, and Warsh Fires a Warning Shot
August 28, 2026
Nvidia prints $96.2B in Q2 revenue, up 106% YoY — the biggest quarterly result in semiconductor history. Q3 guidance $108B, supply-constrained. Backlog exceeds $2T. Salesforce surges 23% as Agentforce ARR crosses $1.5B and Benioff launches Claudeforce with Anthropic — the SaaSpocalypse is dead. Fed Chair Warsh delivers a hawkish Jackson Hole keynote, PCE at 3.7%, September hike odds jump to 56%. Marvell beats but stock falls 8%. Meta settles child safety trial for $17-18B. Consumer bifurcation deepens.
Show notes →Ep 6: Nvidia's $286B Swing, Dick's 25% Crash, and Bitcoin Breaks $80K
August 25, 2026
Nvidia reports Q2 Wednesday and options traders are pricing a $286 billion single-day swing. The stock enters earnings on its worst losing streak since 2022, yet at 25x forward earnings it's cheaper than the Nasdaq 100. Dick's Sporting Goods crashes 25% after its Foot Locker acquisition swings to a loss. Bitcoin crosses $80,000 as the debasement trade goes mainstream. Oil falls below $90 after the Navy clears Strait of Hormuz mines. Intuit and Zoom report after-hours.
Show notes →Ep 5: Walmart's Beat-and-Crash, Treasury's Failed Bond Rescue, and the Iran Oil Shock
August 21, 2026
Walmart beats on earnings and crashes 9% on a comp sales miss. Treasury tries to rescue the bond market and fails — yields bounce right back. National debt hits $40 trillion. Trump vows economic D-Day against Iran, sending oil to $94. Energy stocks are the safe haven while tech crumbles. Apple's low-AI-spend strategy emerges as a deliberate hedge. Moderna surges 177% on a cancer vaccine Phase 3. Banana bonds warnings deepen — $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI debt.
Show notes →Ep 4: Nvidia's $600B OpenAI Deal, Banana Bonds, and the 13F Split
August 18, 2026
Nvidia locks in $600 billion of OpenAI compute through 2030 — the largest AI infrastructure commitment in history. Bond King Gundlach calls it "bonds backed by bananas." Home Depot beats as the consumer holds. Meta's $1.4 trillion trial begins. Oil breaks $85. Smart money splits down the middle — Loeb exits tech, Tepper adds CoreWeave, Dalio boosts SPY.
Show notes →Ep 3: CoreWeave's $104B Backlog and the AI Supply Squeeze
August 14, 2026
CoreWeave doubles revenue with a $104B backlog and raises prices 25%. Nebius auction clears 15% above high. AMD's record $5B bond sale. Applied Materials sees unprecedented demand with 8-quarter commitments. OpenAI hits $40B run rate. Norway's SWF invests $1.22B in SpaceX. BCA Research says electricity is the next AI bottleneck. Burry's shorts get squeezed.
Show notes →Ep 2: Microsoft Breaks $500, Memory Sector Warning, and the Burry-Eisman AI Clash
August 7, 2026
Microsoft closes above $500 for the first time ever. SanDisk's record earnings get punished with a 10% selloff. Nvidia weighs cutting memory on Rubin Ultra. Google's AI brain drain gets a name: DiscoLoop AI. And the Burry vs Eisman debate over the AI bubble heats up.
Show notes →Ep 1: Intel's Blowout, Alphabet's Capex Shock, and the AI Infrastructure Race
July 24, 2026
Intel Q2 blowout — EPS doubles the estimate, 18A in volume production. Alphabet raises capex to $205B and freezes buybacks. Oracle wins a $7B defense contract. How the compendium themes are converging in real time.
Show notes →